India vs China: Why Deadly Clashes Between the Two Seems Accidental but Inevitable
The ongoing border clashes between India and China just became seriously deadly with many casualties on both sides according to media reports. The sources say that there was no shooting involved in the clashes, and the two resorted to melee with fists and makeshift clubs. The fact that more than 20 Indian soldiers died, and Indian news media claiming that many Chinese troops also could have died add to the serious tensions.
But this incident seems like an accidental clash to me. The reason for this is the reports that most of the soldiers who died actually fell from a dangerously narrow cliff. This explanation certainly seems much more plausible than 20–30 people dying in fist fights. Tensions and fist fights between Indian and Chinese soldiers have been happening for many decades, but we have never seen deaths due to those clashes. Comparing this historical pattern with the present incident certainly raises questions about what factors were different this time compared to the past incidents.
The topographic map of area shows steep cliffs on two sides of the Galwan river which eventually joins the Shyok river. The steep cliffs on both sides form the so called India-China LAC. It certainly makes sense for China to hold these high cliffs, which will give them huge tactical control over the Shyok river valley on the other side. The DBO road to Siachen glacier and India-Pakistan-China tri-junction runs parallel to the Shyok river and can be easily controlled and captured from these cliffs.
This shows the strategic importance of this particular land for both India and China. But it also shows where the clashes could lead to accidental landslide or fall into the rivers below.
Although this particular clash has high probability of being accidental due to this unique terrain, the overall strategic picture between India and China makes such periods of high tension inevitable. These two countries are destined to have high tensions, hatred and strategic enmity for the foreseeable future. The reason for this is actually very simple. When two big guys stay close to each other, it is certain that they will jostle for power, prestige, position and advantage.
This is especially true for India, which is much weaker and poorer than China, more than 5 times poorer to be exact. Indian media often talks with envy about Chinese infrastructure, tech advances and then gloats about any Indian achievement that can presumably match or come close to China. Another huge problem that leads Indian anxiety and anger is the fact that China used to be poorer than India in 1990 but now is 5 times richer. This huge and noticeable rise by China has happened within the lifetime of most Indian people.
Just imagine the scenario, your neighbor with whom you had clashes in the past and who used to be poorer than you suddenly became super rich. It is common human reaction to feel angry and frustrated about yourself. Another common human reaction is to direct that anger towards the newly rich neighbor and feel various negative thoughts about them. Some examples of such thoughts in Indian mindset is often seen in their media such as: fake Chinese products, Chinese are always trying back-stab India, Chinese achievements are also fake and so on. Thus for India, China is seen as a threat and as a sneaky neighbor who does not deserve to be rich and powerful, may have gotten that wealth by nefarious means or maybe not rich at all and only faking it. This thinking leads to anxiety in all aspects of the relationship including trade, military, investment and diplomacy.
In every field, India will always compare with China, because in their mindset India should be superior to China, and the fact that India is behind now is an anomaly that will be quickly rectified, or maybe untrue entirely. Showing any kind of weakness or concession to China is seen as a huge loss of face for Indian national pride and standing.
If we compare this thinking with Chinese side, we see a completely different picture. India is seen as a huge market for Chinese products but also a threat for China’s underbelly which is the Tibetan border. China is obviously focused on their east coast and strategic competition with US and its client states of Japan and South Korea and also the informal client state of Taiwan. China does not think about India and does not want to think about India. But India is too big to ignore for China. So, while China focuses on keeping the peace with India on all fronts as much as possible, it also wants to keep India busy and weakened. Pakistan is the perfect tool for China to achieve that goal. China can support Pakistan to keep India occupied on the subcontinent while also benefit from trade with India.
Thus, the primary aggression potential actually comes from India which wants to raise conflicts with China so that it can not only reduce the threat that it feels from a stronger power, but also satisfy its ego to be equal to China in all aspects. But on the hand India is much weaker than China, so that becomes the dampener on any kind escalation.
You can already see this scenario happening in the social media of both countries. Indians are clamoring for war and toughness and action. While Chinese nationalists are warning India not escalate and hoping to end this situation peacefully. For China, the force that reduces the desire for war is to focus on its own economic development and bigger battle with US. For India, the feeling of weakness and anxiety coupled with perceived inferior China suddenly becoming strong adds a strong incentive for raising tensions, but the actual facts in the ground of economic and military weakness acts to constrain them. The Indian public then blames its leaders for being weak and demands to them to get a spine. For them, the weakness of India is a fiction and the only thing needed to put China in its place is a tough attitude.
When one side is itching for a fight but is only stopped by perceived feeling of weakness, it is inevitable that pride and anger will flare up from time to time to raise this kind incidents. The other side is stronger but less interested for a fight and its main goal is to keep tensions low but still focus on weakening the opponent through other means.
This dichotomy will always fuel incidents and tensions between India and China, and will never go away. We may expect flare ups like this often as China keeps gaining power and India fails to keep up, but rises enough to feel powerful and deserving to be China’s equal, no matter the reality. However, thankfully Himalaya stands between the two and makes land war over the border less likely. The more like scenario is fight for dominance and influence over smaller neighbors of India in the subcontinent. If India becomes stronger and narrows the gap, then the focus of the contest will likely shift to South-East Asia. But for now, due to Indian weakness, China can keep India out of South-East Asia, and actually start gaining some influence in the subcontinent.
The ideal scenario for China that could solve this long-term tension would be the breakup of India into smaller pieces that will start fighting with each other, allowing China to ally with one or more factions to gain a solid dominance in the region. The ideal scenario for India would inevitably be the severe weakening and breakup of China into its own constituent pieces. But we are probably not going to see either happening in the next century.
Thus, clashes between giants will continue simmering with occasional blowups like what happened now.
